Category: Daily Instagraph

Looking at the European gas storage levels from the moon, you would not guess there is a war in Ukraine triggering a severe energy crisis in Europe. Now we have a beneficial combination of a lower than expected supply shock and less demand for heating due a mild winter. The result: Gas storage levels in … Continued

According to the historian Adam Tooze, a polycrisis in economics refers to “not just a situation where you face multiple crises, [but] a situation…where the whole is even more dangerous than the sum of the parts”. Strategists from Credit Suisse believe we could be currently facing exactly such a situation with the weaponization of four … Continued

The industrial metal copper is often referred to as Dr Copper as its price has been historically a good indication of overall economic health. The body temperature of global business activity is on the rise again with a 25% increase of the price of copper over the last 6 months. The reopening of China after … Continued

Swedish telco equipment maker Ericsson announced yesterday a provision of SEK 2.3bn in Q4 in relation to a potential resolution with the US Department of Justice of a breach situation in a case of payments to the Islamic State in Iraq. Stock price was up 6% as the provisions indicates a deal is close and … Continued

As interest rates have been increasing, valuations of the US equity market do not look particularly attractive compared to US government bonds. The normalized US earnings yield ( inverse of the price to earnings ratio ) is now slightly lower than the bond yield on US 10 year government bonds. This is a sign that … Continued

The current global monetary tightening is expected to be the strongest since the early 1980s as measured by the G7 weighted policy rate (source: FT,Worldbank). The cost of credit has substantially increased, especially for the weaker borrowers. It has also resulted in the end of free money as zero or negative yielding debt has disappeared. … Continued

Value Investing as an investment style has been out of favour since the financial crisis in 2008. With the benefit of hindsight this is understandable as central banks artificially kept interest rates ultralow and hereby suspended valuations. In other words, with interest rates close to zero in a discounted cashflow ( DCF ), the value … Continued

The US equity market has dominated the rest of the world over the last 15 years. According to strategists from BofA, 100 USD invested in the US stock market in March 2008 have grown to 288 USD today, while 100 USD invested in Global Stocks ex US stocks are down to USD 98. We note … Continued

Inflation numbers are improving in Europe. Over the last week we had weaker than expected and slowing inflation numbers in Spain and in Germany. Yesterday came a CPI print at 6.7% for December out of France, still high but showing French inflation unexpectedly slowed from a year earlier after record increases of 7.1% in October … Continued

There appears to be some relief in the European energy crisis. This is mainly due to the milder weather we have been experiencing so far this winter. We also witness a silent change in the political mindset as we read for example it becomes more somewhat more acceptable for the German Green Party to slow … Continued