Category: DAILY INSTAGRAPH

On the inauguration day of Donald Trump, the US technology index, Nasdaq, had remained above its 200-day moving average for an impressive 466 trading days—marking the second-longest winning streak in 40 years. During this period, the index surged by 80%, fueled primarily by a handful of MegaTech stocks. However, we must ask ourselves: who might … Continued

The German economy faces deep structural challenges, with GDP contracting 0.2% in 2024 after a 0.3% drop in 2023. Weak EV competitiveness in the car industry, flawed energy policy, reliance on a slowing China, underinvestment in infrastructure and education, an aging population, and high administrative burdens are dragging growth. Despite the DAX rising 24% over … Continued

There’s a straightforward reason why we remain cautious about the U.S. high-yield space, even though the U.S. economy continues to deliver positive surprises. In today’s environment, the compensation for taking on higher credit risk by lending to riskier borrowers is no longer adequate. Credit spreads have fallen to record lows, even as bankruptcies have surged … Continued

The familiar economic adage states, “If the U.S. sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.” Yet as Torsten Slock of Apollo Asset Management notes, in today’s globalized environment, the reverse also holds true. Forty-one percent of S&P 500 companies’ revenue is generated overseas, underscoring how events in Europe and China can reverberate through … Continued

Brent surged above $81 a barrel, the highest price in 4 months, after the US rolled out new sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, targeting exporters, insurers, and over 150 tankers. India and China may be forced to seek new suppliers, tightening an already fragile market. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has plans to ease output curbs later … Continued

As Bloomberg columnist John Authers comments, deflation’s icy grip tightens on China, as hopes for a robust stimulus fizzle. Property prices languish, weighed down by a mountain of local government debt north of 60 trillion yuan. Investor patience is wearing thin—bond yields keep tumbling, a stark signal that the world’s second-largest economy is flirting with … Continued

One of the most famous variations of this sentiment is attributed to Alan Greenspan, former Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, who frequently emphasized that you can’t confidently identify a bubble until after it has burst. In a 2002 speech, Greenspan stated: “We at the Federal Reserve recognized that, irrespective of the possibilities of a … Continued

German mid-cap KION is a global leader in supply chain automation solutions, boasting a market cap of around €4.6 billion, which we own in our European Value Fund. Yesterday, the stock price jumped 9.6%, spurred by Jensen Huang’s NVIDIA keynote, where he showcased his new AI partnership with KION. The stock is still down 42% … Continued

The MSCI World Index, which comprises more than 1,400 companies across the globe, serves as the standard benchmark for most global equity funds and is the yardstick against which fund managers are measured. Last year, over 90% of the index’s gains were driven by U.S. stocks, implying that any manager who shunned American equities ran … Continued

On behalf of the entire ECP team, I’d like to wish you a happy and prosperous 2025, filled with good health and success in all your personal, financial, and professional endeavors. Looking ahead, many market observers believe 2025 will mirror the past year, with ongoing outperformance by U.S. equities—particularly in technology. At ECP, however, we … Continued