Category: Daily Instagraph

Japan’s 20-year bond yield has surged to 2.78%, the highest in more than 25 years, as markets question the government’s massive stimulus package and its impact on an already heavy 263% debt-to-GDP burden. Expectations that these plans may require a more dovish BOJ are adding to the sell-off in JGBs. A key risk now is … Continued

We start the week with our regular look at global equity valuations. The message remains broadly unchanged: US large caps continue to trade at elevated levels, both versus their own long-term history and compared to the rest of the world. What is noteworthy is that even when excluding the US tech sector, valuations for US … Continued

US consumers remain unusually depressed: confidence has fallen to levels typically seen only during recessions. This is puzzling at first glance — unemployment remains low, and equity markets have held up reasonably well in USD terms this year (think positive wealth effect). Beneath the reassuring headline data, households are feeling the strain. The combination of … Continued

While gold and silver have captured the spotlight, copper has quietly reached a new all-time high this year. Long seen as a barometer of global economic health, “Dr. Copper” is now driven by more than just industrial demand. The energy transition and the AI revolution are powering a structural shift: electric vehicles, renewable grids, and … Continued

Warren Buffett announced that he is “going quiet,” marking the end of an era for one of the business world’s most respected voices as he will no longer write his famous annual letters or speak at the company’s meetings. This marks another step in Buffett’s gradual handover to his longtime deputy, Greg Abel, who inherits … Continued

For months, investors have debated the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policy on global trade and, ultimately, on world growth. Some even predicted the end of globalisation. So far, the data tell a more nuanced story: the volume of world merchandise trade has continued its upward trend. It is too early to conclude that … Continued

It’s Halloween, so a small memento mori: our investment horizon is certainly not the one shown on century-spanning charts—by then we’ll highly likely be gone. Still, history is clear: equities have been the most reliable long-term hedge against inflation, and starting valuations matter—buying when dividend yields are high or when P/E and CAPE are low … Continued

As Halloween approaches, here’s a scary chart for the German economy. With baby boomers retiring, Germany is set to lose roughly one in ten workers over the next decade (UN WPP 2024 via Dr. Stefan Legge, University of St. Gallen). The working-age population is shrinking while the 65+ cohort swells—one structural reason growth has faded … Continued

One of our preferred valuation measures at ECP is the CAPE – the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which normalises corporate earnings over 10 years and adjusts them for inflation. Once again, it shows that US equities are trading at historically elevated levels, comparable only to the extremes reached at the peak of the Internet bubble. … Continued

It now takes 61 barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold, one of the highest ratios in history. This extreme level reflects both the strength of gold and the weakness of oil prices. Over the last 40 years, such a peak was only reached once, during the Covid pandemic in 2020, when oil … Continued