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Category: Daily Instagraph

Taking the lead

By leon

China has been quietly taking the lead in the most critical technologies of our time. Not only does most high-impact research now originate from China, but Chinese entities also hold the majority of active patents worldwide. This shift has deep implications for the long-term competitiveness of the US and Europe. A strong education system, well-funded … Continued

No room for complacency

By leon

Margin debt in the U.S. stock market has reached 1.1 trillion USD, a new record unseen in financial history. Combined with the fact that it is mainly private investors who have been buying while institutional investors and hedge funds have been net sellers, this setup looks increasingly fragile. Historically, high margin debt levels have tended … Continued

Driven by earnings growth

By leon

Yes, valuations in the S&P 500 remain elevated — both relative to their own history and compared to other markets. Yes, the concentration in a few mega-cap tech names is unusually high. However, what currently drives the US stock market is earnings growth, not multiple expansion. This marks a fundamental difference from the Internet bubble, … Continued

Top 10

By leon

Today’s chart shows how the top 10 companies by market capitalization in the S&P 500 have evolved over the last five decades. The first striking fact: none of the leaders of 2005 remain in today’s top 10. Only Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft and JPMorgan have survived from the 2015 list. The current top 10 is … Continued

Money rules the world

By leon

BlackRock’s assets under management have reached a new record of 13.5 trillion USD. For reference, that’s roughly 6 times the value of the German stock market (DAX) and about 4 times the French one (CAC 40). Of course, BlackRock’s scale extends far beyond equities — the firm has seen substantial growth across fixed income and … Continued

Robotic dragons at our door

By leon

It was not long ago that Europeans and Americans worried about China’s cheap labor. They probably still do — but the real threat has evolved. China is now a global leader in factory automation. It installs more industrial robots each year than the rest of the world combined, and its robot density has already surpassed … Continued

Geopolitical supply risks

By leon

Equity markets sold off globally on Friday, shaken by renewed trade tensions between the United States and China. A new episode of “Truth Social diplomacy” from President Trump sent shockwaves through financial markets — with the Nasdaq down 3.5% and crypto assets tumbling amid fears of a renewed trade war. The trigger came as China … Continued

Money for nothing

By leon

Yesterday, Ferrari’s stock fell by 15.4%, its worst day ever, after the company unveiled an updated long-term earnings guidance at its Capital Markets Day that came in below analyst expectations. We find the market reaction somewhat intriguing for several reasons. The forecast in question concerns 2030, which is still five years away. Ferrari is, in … Continued

The rise of unprofitable tech

By leon

As of September 30th, 2025 has been a year where tech companies with no revenues or profits have outperformed almost everything else. The US market has become increasingly dominated by such speculative names, while profitable businesses lag behind. At European Capital Partners, we stay disciplined. Over time, it’s earnings and valuations that drive returns — … Continued

No tech tailwind in Europe

By leon

European Capital Partners was on roadshow in Munich yesterday, meeting institutional investors to present our European Value Strategy. One discussion point stood out: how our investment philosophy has evolved over the past two decades to navigate Europe’s structural and economic headwinds. Several participants voiced concerns about Europe’s competitiveness — not only France’s current malaise but … Continued