Category: Daily Instagraph

Germany’s industrial slowdown can no longer be explained by COVID-19 alone. Production has been declining steadily, with energy-intensive sectors hit particularly hard. Output in these areas has failed to rebound and now stands about 20% below 2021 levels. This is more than a cyclical dip — it is accelerating deindustrialisation. Germany’s competitive position as a … Continued

Since Warren Buffett announced his retirement in early May, Berkshire Hathaway’s share price has lagged the S&P 500 by about 26%. Some voices now suggest the legendary investor should return to the helm to steer investment decisions once again.

This chart says it all. If you invest 100 USD in an ETF tracking the S&P 500 today, 15 USD are allocated to just two stocks: Microsoft and NVIDIA. Meanwhile, only 19.7 USD go to all defensive sectors combined — consumer staples, healthcare, energy, and utilities. At European Capital Partners, we call this what it … Continued

This quarter, European markets are delivering the harshest punishment for earnings misses since 2005. On average, Stoxx 600 companies falling short of expectations are underperforming the index by 2.3 percentage points — despite already lowered forecasts going into the season. The reaction reflects fragile sentiment following renewed enthusiasm for European equities earlier this year. Investors … Continued

James Carville, campaign strategist for Bill Clinton in 1992, famously summed up electoral outcomes in these words: “It’s the economy, stupid.”  Friday’s data confirm why the current administration is concerned — the U.S. labour market has slowed sharply. Over the past three months, only 106,000 jobs were created, less than one-third of Q1 levels. The … Continued

While investor attention remains fixated on large caps, the valuation gap with small caps has reached historic extremes. In the U.S., the combined market value of the five largest companies now exceeds that of the entire Russell 2000 index by a factor of five — an unprecedented level. This imbalance creates fertile ground for long-term … Continued

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan and one of the most influential bankers of our time, delivered a stark assessment of Europe’s economic trajectory: “Europe has gone from 90 per cent of US GDP to 65 per cent over 10 or 15 years. That’s not good. You’re losing.” Today’s chart puts this into perspective. Back in … Continued

NVIDIA’s market capitalization reached $4.18 trillion at yesterday’s close. The stock is now a 17-bagger over the past five years, and its valuation is rapidly converging with that of the entire Euro Stoxx 50 — a group of Europe’s 50 largest listed companies, currently worth $5.47 trillion. NVIDIA now makes up 8.19% of the S&P … Continued

In the short run, valuations may not matter much — as John Maynard Keynes famously said, “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” But over the long term, history shows a clear pattern: the higher the entry valuation, the lower the expected return. Today’s chart illustrates this well. There is a strong … Continued

The concentration in US equity markets isn’t just a matter of sentiment — it reflects a stark earnings reality. As Andrew Lapthorne from SG Research illustrates in this compelling chart, the only segment of the S&P 500 seeing meaningful profit growth is its top 10 stocks. Strip those out, and forward net income has been … Continued